After having increased for the past five weeks, mortgage rates decreased nine basis points according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on April 9th. Compared to same period last year, rates are 25 basis points lower. This decrease in rates represents a positive development for prospective homebuyers and could spark a more favorable spring homebuying season than last year.
Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 3rd. “Higher mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty weighed down on mortgage applications again last week. While mortgage rates saw a slight recovery, many potential refinance borrowers have been frozen out by the sharp increase over the past month. The pace of refinance applications was at its lowest level since December 2025,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall purchase activity has also been adversely impacted by current conditions; purchase applications were 7 percent lower on a year-over-year basis, the first annual decline since January 2025.”
The U.S. labor market bounced back in March, with job creation much stronger than expected though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force. “The bottom line is March was somewhat encouraging, but it’s been a rocky year for the labor market with almost no hiring since last April,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The March data will keep the Federal Reserve on hold, but no one is declaring victory yet. It’s likely to be a tough spring for job seekers.”
U.S. Federal Reserve officials knew at their March meeting that the U.S.-Iran war was going to send inflation higher for the year, but minutes of the two-day session flesh out even further the risks policymakers and central bank staff see from a conflict that President Donald Trump has cast in civilizational terms. A developing global oil shock was in its third week when the Fed met on March 17-18, with benchmark oil prices having risen from around $70 to $100 a barrel, and virtually all policymakers included higher 2026 inflation in updated economic projections issued after the meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said various scenarios had been included in discussion at the March meeting. “We did talk about alternative scenarios a little bit,” Powell said at his press conference following the March meeting. “It’s very uncertain. We shouldn’t assume it’s going to be one thing or another” when it comes to the duration of the war and its effect on economic growth and prices in the U.S. and globally”.
