Mortgage rates increased eleven basis points last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on March 19th. Although the 30 Year Fixed Rate has increased significantly in the past two weeks, it remains nearly half a percentage point lower than the same period last year. Potential homebuyers are poised for a more affordable spring homebuying season than last year, with the market experiencing improvements in purchase applications and pending home sales.
Mortgage applications decreased 10.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 13th. “Mortgage rates continued to move higher, driven by increasing Treasury yields as the conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, along with the risk of a broader inflationary shock. Mortgage rates increased across the board.” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago and this caused a reversal in refinance activity. Purchase applications remained steady despite the higher rates, with conventional purchase applications unchanged and growth in both FHA and VA segments. Overall purchase applications remained ahead of last year’s pace, supported by higher inventory and slowing home-price growth in many markets.”
Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period, hampered by a record-long government shutdown that saw government spending tumble 16.7%. For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady as policymakers navigate their way through higher-than-expected inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market – and a war. In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. The committee in its post-meeting statement made few changes to its view on the economy, with a slightly faster pace of growth and higher inflation projections for 2026. Despite the elevated uncertainty, officials again signaled they still expect a few rate cuts ahead. The closely watched “dot plot,” which reflects individual members’ rate projections, pointed to one reduction this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear.
